2015 marks the 10th year of Pitchfork Music Festival, Pitchfork Media’s annual mid-July takeover of Chicago’s Union Park. Unlike most festivals, where the trend seems to be “the bigger the better,” Pitchfork stagnates the size of their fest, a move that works in both their and their fans’ favors; in our humble opinion, there’s rarely a better bang-for-your-buck weekend in the entire summer festival circuit.

Jonk Music writers Brandon Clementi and Andrew Brandt have attended Pitchfork Music Festival for a combined nine (just roll with it close enough?) years. As self-proclaimed festival experts and kids with just too much darn time on their hands, Brandon and Andrew decided to take a crack at what’ll  be going down in Union Park come July 17.

Best Bets to Headline:

Sleater-Kinney

Sleater-Kinney

With regards to the 10½ months of 2015 that have yet to unfold, few things seem as inevitable as Sleater-Kinney’s headlining Pitchfork set. This band has all the makings of a great Pitchfork headliner: a slick new album, a back catalog full of rich and invigorating material, and a fresh new lease on life thanks to a well-timed reunion (we need you more than ever, S-K!). Of course, there’s also a bonus appeal stemming from Carrie Brownstein’s increasingly ubiquitous status as a global ambassador of bad-ass feminism and TV comedy. Pitchfork’s American festivals have reliably used their headlining slot to celebrate titans of the ’90s whenever they have bubbled back up from obscurity via reunion or new release (Pavement, Björk, Neutral Milk Hotel, Godspeed You! Black Emperor) and I couldn’t think of a better pick to hold this position. That said, I am hoping for two such influential acts to headline this year. —Brandon Clementi

D'Angelo

D’Angelo

D’Angelo would be a terrific counterpart to Sleater-Kinney on this bill. He’s got two very highly-lauded albums under his belt. Black Messiah, his late 2014 album with The Vanguard, has received nearly uniform praise as a modern soul game-changer. 2000’s Voodoo has been afforded iconic status through its nearly 15 years of age and Pitchfork granted it a perfect score upon re-release in December 2012. His music is powerful, uplifting, far-reaching, and groovy as all hell.

Why, then, might D’Angelo and the Vanguard not top the Pitchfork lineup? He last played in Chicago in a well-publicized bummer of a performance at the United Center, a 30-minute set in 2012 opening for Mary J. Blige that started two hours late and was cut to that brief length due to “health reasons.” Fortunately, recent live videos and a killer SNL performance a couple weeks ago indicate that things in the live performance department are looking up for this guy. He’s headed out on a European tour following a sold out show at New York’s 1500-seat Apollo (tickets: $56-$216) last week. It’s tough to say whether or not D’Angelo has a strong enough following with the kiddos who bring such a vital revenue stream to today’s festivals, but Pitchfork doesn’t seem to prioritize this demographic in any way that would make this a deal-breaker for D’Angelo. —B.C.

Aphex Twin

Aphex Twin

Richard D. James’s return to the fold has been highly publicized (a bit too highly, perhaps, based on 2014’s pretty OK Syro), and expectedly so considering the massive shadow he continues to cast over ambient/IDM-leaning electronic artists’ work. Like D’Angelo and Sleater-Kinney, his ability to carve a truly singular niche has earned him the reputation of a true pioneer. Accordingly, Aphex Twin’s sets have been few and far between—always, true to form, smelling of big money. In recent years he’s played a decent number of festival headlining spots in Europe and Australia, including Pitchfork Paris. The question here, then, is: Can Pitchfork rationalize the payola needed to bring Aphex Twin to America for a one-off?

Pre-festival coverage is always a decent indicator of Pitchfork’s festival lineup. The powerful vertical integration allowed by the trio of Pitchfork’s blog, their festivals, and the Windish Agency allows the triplet powerhouses to break a band, make them bigger, and share profits with their successes. There’s been no shortage of Aphex news —as there has been for almost all of our headlining contenders—which is as good a sign as any that they want these names to stay on top of readers’ minds, and more power to them for that. We’ll see soon if any of this has been a self-marketing maneuver. —B.C.

Frank Ocean

Frank Ocean

A Sleater-Kinney/D’Angelo/Aphex Twin-headlined festival would be an incredible win for people that grew up with these artists, but none of those names exactly meet the urgency of the “now” bands that sell tons of tickets. Assuming we get a headlining roster that affords us two of these acts (give or take one out-of-nowhere inclusion—I’ve heard Missy Elliott rumors), I would imagine Pitchfork will want to balance out the more “classic” (sigh) acts with some freshly developing talent. I can’t think of anyone more deserving of inclusion in the third spot than Frank Ocean. He’s working on a new album, a follow-up a his smash debut LP Channel Orange (Pitchfork’s No. 2 album of ’12), and the material he’s been teasing lately have ranged from promising to terrific. His last Chicago performance was a thunderstorm-marred Lollapalooza gig in 2012, one month after the release of his debut. A Frank Ocean headlining spot would bring in a tremendous amount of ticket sales and would please both young and old attendees. He’s a well-respected young dude who’s doing big things and going places. I’d put money on one of those places being an 8:30 Green Stage set. —B.C.

Longer Odds to Headline:

Passion Pit

Passion Pit may seem like a left-field Pitchfork Music Festival headlining option, but few artists we’ve mentioned here are going to appeal to the masses like Michael Angelakos’ ongoing project. And when it comes down to it, festivals really, really need to sell ticket$ to survive. —Andrew Brandt

Sufjan Stevens

It was recently announced that Sufjan Stevens will be a main act at Justin Vernon’s expertly curated Eaux Claires Festival (July 17-18). But with just a five-hour drive between Chicago and Eau Claire, it seems perfectly reasonable that Sufjan could visit both festivals in the same weekend. You know, if really he wanted to. —A.B.

Modest Mouse

Yes, a lot of Pitchfork favorites have recently released fantastic records after years of hibernating, relaxing, what have you (See: Nearly every artist listed above). But don’t count Modest Mouse out. Just…just don’t. —A.B.

Projecting the Complete Field:

Friday, July 17

8:30 Headliner 1 (GREEN)

7:20 Panda Bear (RED)

Panda Bear feels inevitable in this spot. True, he’s already released his album, but this otherwise seems like a direct call back to his penultimate spot on the 2010 lineup: 7:25 on the C stage (what would become the Red stage in 2011, which is somehow less confusing). I’d feel weird demoting him to an earlier time, considering his Pitchfork Royalty status and all, but he’s certainly not a headliner. —B.C.

7:15 Sophie (BLUE)

6:25 Chance the Rapper (GREEN)

Chance closed out Perry’s—Lollapalooza’s ever-growing dance stage—on the final day of the 2014 weekend. He feels like a big “get” for Pitchfork, but given his humble nature I think chances are fair that either he or his affiliated Social Experiment will have a late-day set at Pitchfork this year. —B.C.

6:15 How to Dress Well (BLUE)

5:30 Ariel Pink (RED)

I’m unsure about Ariel. He’s a polarizing dude. Despite Pitchfork’s glowing appreciation for his 2014 solo LP Pom Pom, the fact remains that his set at P4K 2011 was not very well-received. My experiences seeing the guy have always been weird and sometimes off-putting, but I’m still fascinated with his music enough to deal with it—and I don’t feel alone in that concession. —B.C.

5:15 Future Brown (BLUE)

4:35 Father John Misty (GREEN)

4:15 Ought (BLUE)

Today, more than any other day, is the one during which Ought will probably make their Pitchfork Music Festival debut. —A.B.

3:30 Jessica Pratt (RED)

3:20 Twerps (BLUE)

Saturday, July 18

8:30 Headliner 2 (GREEN)

7:45 Arca (BLUE)

Arca’s got to be on the lineup this year, right? He did a really slick job handling FKA twigs’ set last year, and he’s become a big and exciting enough name by now that I think he’s a prime candidate for the coveted final Blue Stage set of the day. —B.C.

7:25 Caribou (RED)

Pitchfork has a history of throwing into this slot likeable artists that make you wanna move (See: Giorgio Moroder, Grimes, Hot Chip). Caribou fits this descriptor to a T. —A.B.

6:45 Pharmakon (BLUE)

An easy candidate for a fest hanger-on who might skip the fest but play a terrific after-show, Pharmakon is one of the picks I feel the most unsure about. I just can’t picture listening to this outside in a park. She is terrific, though, and not without precedent: Haxan Cloak nailed a midday Blue Stage set last year, and Liars did a decent job attempting to drag their spooked dark club rock out in the hot sun for a 5:30 pm Pitchfork ’14 set. —B.C.

6:15 Future Islands (GREEN)

5:45 Viet Cong (BLUE)

Personally, this is one of my most anticipated Blue Stage sets this year. Note that I really pushed for a late Saturday Blue Stage “spooky” vibe theme. No Spooky Black, though—he can stay in Eaux Claires. —B.C.

5:15 Mac DeMarco (RED)

Dear P4K: Plz bring Mac back. —A.B.

4:45 Angel Olsen (BLUE)

4:15 Dan Deacon (GREEN)

3:45 Tobias Jesso Jr. (BLUE)

Brandon’s staggering of these three sets (Dan Deacon, Tobias Jesso Jr. and James Blake) is one of the best scheduling maneuvers I’ve ever witnessed; it’s sheer brilliance. If P4K hasn’t set their Saturday afternoon in stone yet, I hope—for their sake and for ours—that they’re reading this right now. —A.B.

3:20 James Blake (RED)

2:50 Thou (BLUE)

2:30 Migos (GREEN)

More than in previous years, I feel less certain about which rappers will grace the Pitchfork lineup. I figure Migos is as good a candidate as any, and Makonnen and Vince Staples feel like an obvious picks, but aside from that I wasn’t sure whether to nominate Dej Loafs or Young Thugs, if you follow. —B.C.

1:55 Parquet Courts (BLUE)

1:45 Foxygen (RED)

1:00 Lower Dens (BLUE)

1:00 White Lung (GREEN)

Sunday, July 19

8:30 Headliner 3 (GREEN)

7:45 Shamir (BLUE)

I’ll say this: I feel a lot surer about Shamir closing down the Blue Stage than I do about my decision to watch the entire second season of Maron on Netflix. —A.B.

7:25 New Pornographers (RED)

When assembling my long list of ideas for the lineup, I crossed out Neko Case and replaced her with The New Pornographers. The New Pornographers satisfy a legacy check on the checklist of desirable qualities for a P4K fest act, and I think they have a wider appeal than ever given recent knockout albums by Neko and Destroyer. There’s also a fair amount of wishful thinking, since it has been a hot minute since I’ve last caught them live. —B.C.

6:45 Todd Terje (BLUE)

6:15 Run the Jewels (GREEN)

Where oh where to put RtJ on this lineup? In their short lifetime as a package duo, they’ve slayed nonstop and released one of the unanimous favorites of the 2014 release calendar: RTJ2. They’re certainly not a big enough name to headline, but are they a better candidate than the penultimate Red acts in the proposed schedule (Panda Bear, Caribou, New Pornographers)? I suppose they might knock any of those out of that timeslot. Still, they’re energetic and, from a pacing perspective, a good midday booking to keep attendees in party mode between more introspective sets. —B.C.

5:45 Lightning Bolt (BLUE)

5:15 The War on Drugs (RED)

4:45 Iceage (BLUE)

4:15 iLoveMakonnen (GREEN)

Besides Run the Jewels, iLoveMakonnen is the biggest no-brainer hip-hop act for this year’s fest. Seriously: If iLoveMakonnen isn’t performing in Union Park come mid-July, I’ve got money on Bret Michaels headlining this thing. —A.B.

3:45 Ex Hex (BLUE)

3:20 Courtney Barnett (RED)

I could also see C.B. ranking later in the day, but it’s tough to pass on the appeal she has for big-sun-mode. Her music thrives off narrative and muted rock star moves more than it does the mysterious sort of vibe that pushes ideal set times into dusky territory. As an Australian act, they’re probably more used to playing in sun and heat anyhow. —B.C.

2:50 Vince Staples (BLUE)

2:30 Young Thug (GREEN)

1:55 METZ (BLUE)

The New York Mets’ main color is blue. When METZ played P4K in 2013, they played on the Blue Stage. Are there dots to be connected here? Probably not, but we’ve just got a hunch about this one. —A.B.

1:45 Natalie Prass (RED)

1:00 Mr. Twin Sister (BLUE)

1:00 Title Fight (GREEN)

Title Fight’s super early show is going to be my favorite bizarro set time/band pairing this year—sort of like Savages and Swans both performing under the sun’s shine in 2013. —A.B.

Darkhorse Picks:

Charli XCX, Flying Lotus, Jens Lenkman, Tame Impala, The Wrens.

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